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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.