🔗 Share this article

Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to gain from the alternative positions."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."